New Model Requirement

I use the idea of model a lot. 32 search mentions on Sales Lab Posts and a like number on Through The Browser, plus they are all over my presentations and projects.

I use models because they are a fast, efficient way to stay current on many subjects, to dynamically address changing situations.

A model is a simplified version of reality, with the minimum required inputs, to return an accurate prediction about how a situation will resolve. That may sound like a spreadsheet exercise, and often is, but my most common models are predicting how someone will act after they make a commitment.

The observation, If someone borrows twenty dollars from you and then avoids you to keep from repaying, that’s probably a good investment is both a quick and frequent model.

You can always expect someone to continue doing what they’ve been doing saves a lot of time, as does transformation is possible, just don’t underestimate the cost.

A good model will increase path and speed to desired result. An inaccurate model creates humor and carnage. I am constantly amused by people who choose to believe model over reality.

Over time, reality changes. The best indication of reality changes is when a model no longer accurately predicts actual results. I am amazed at the number of people putting their full faith and credit in models that haven’t been accurate at any time in recent memory.

The solution for an inaccurate model is to go through the process of defining a new model. The more you do that, the faster and easier, (and more accurate) the models become.

My new requirement for models is they should provide information leading to improvement. A friend has a go-to model for any distressing situation. “She does that because she lacks self-confidence. Self-confidence is the problem.”

Well, how do you fix that? Self-confidence, like self-esteem is earned by that self person. An observer having that opinion of the problem doesn’t lead to a solution. The correct response is, “Yeah? So what?”

My new requirement is that a model should provide potential solutions to improve a sub-optimal situation.

What are your best models?

Get The Right Model

“It’s okay to talk to yourself. Just don’t tell yourself any lies.” Danny Evans, Carpenter

Reality is complex. To understand and predict reality we build models, simplified versions of reality.

Managers often confuse their model with reality. The model doesn’t care. When your model no longer works, build a new model.

Since New Year’s, I’ve been hearing several senior executives invoking the holy management pyramid to justify their contributions and absolve them of some ugly behavior.

Observing their organizations, I couldn’t find no stinkin’ pyramid. However, like phantom pain after a limb is amputated, these guys can still imagine their pyramids.

I rarely find a whole operation executed in one organization. That was where the pyramid came from. Now we have outsourcing, socioeconomic goals, and increasingly narrow areas of expertise.

It’s been years since a boss could fulfill their end of the pyramid bargain, “You do what I tell you to do, I’ll cover you,” hasn’t been true for a while now.

Last year one CEO told me, “I have a 60 day event horizon at best. My board would fire me in a heartbeat if they could find someone who could do my job.”

And they say two year old kids are crude irritable!

I have two other management models, which I think are more accurate.

Looking at my own organization, I see a hub and spoke model. I am currently involved in over ten projects, some I am leading, some I am supporting. For the past ten years, I have been building a network of trusted co-workers, people who are better than average at some set of work. That’s my first replacement for the pyramid.

The second is the Pony Express model.

You know how the Pony Express got the mail delivered so fast? They swapped out the horses when they tired. They had horses for the flats, horses for the hills, always with the emphasis on speed to finish.

A good model should help you predict reality. What are the management models you are seeing?

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Analytics, Vision, and Reality Checks

I got another question about analytics from a business owner who was thinking about adding social media to her toolbox. She wanted to know what analytical tools she should be acquiring...even before moving beyond her website.

I’ve decided analytics are seductive, because they offer the promise of buying some packages and then knowing more. That should be a lot easier than writing blog posts, so that’s why we want them.

I know several weekend golfers who say, “There is nothing wrong with buying new equipment to cut strokes.” The only problem is, it seldom works. Playing three times a week improves my handicap.

A long time ago, Jack Gates challenged me, how did I know a blog post went to 200,000 people? “I count,” I replied. He subsided.

A week later he told me one of his posts went to seven hundred fifty thousand people. I didn’t ask. I already knew how he knew.

In a factory, a good manager can often tell me things about the customers that shape strategic direction. Owners think I’m a gifted consultant because I seek out their best managers and ask them.

Toys’R’Us was famous for putting in a cash register system that replenished inventory, which led to fewer out-of-stocks, and created more overstocks. They then had to solve the new problem.

I see analytics as an occasional tool, which when needed has delivered incredible insights the first time. Second time, not so much. Third time means calibration error.

Put another way, if you measure the wrong things, you get the wrong answers.

Google uses analytics as their sales tool. Analyze until you think you’ve discovered something, then place some bets to see how good your analysis works. Who knew placing bets on adwords would be a billion dollar business?

But in Google’s business operations I see some other tools that are possibly more valuable than analytics, especially where analytics is the wrong tool.

The first is vision. What should be?

Once you establish what should be, having somebody create it goes pretty quick.

I also see Google is quick to buy core or accessory technology as soon as they know they need it and find someone who’s got it.

Make or buy decision, increasing speed to market. That’s business 101.

I enjoy reading opinioners declare Google products failed. That’s usually because they don’t understand what just happened. They like completed stories, commonly agreed facts.

The innovator’s way is to improve the offering. Whether the press thinks something is a success or not is of little value.

How can you tweak the carb and change the tires to knock a half second off the run?

And then do it again?

The third tool is the reality check. My best example of a reality check was intoned by the Reverend Johnson in the management training film Blazing Saddles (caution bad words...it's Mel Brooks!) No matter where you are in the process, you need to keep one eye on the goal line, as especially these days, goal lines have a habit of changing.

So there you have it. As much as we hope for magic analytics, the right analytics work best with the right vision and an ongoing reality check.

Or as my favorite yogi has written, “You can observe a lot just by watching.”

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